Governor Mikie Sherrill is riding high according to a recent poll.
Two months into her tenure, the Democrat commands a 58% approval rating. The strong start outpaces her three predecessors at similar points in their terms. But the real question isn’t whether she’s popular now. It’s what she does with this momentum—and whether she can hold onto the popularity.
A Fairleigh Dickinson University poll released Tuesday shows Sherrill entering her first budget season with significant political capital. As expected, Democrats are her strongest base, commanding an 88% approval amongst her party’s voters. But, she also maintains strong numbers with Independents at 50%.
Some suggest it could be a honeymoon period, but here’s what makes Sherrill’s position genuinely interesting: it’s not just that New Jersey voters approve of her. It’s that they’re giving her credit for something bigger than typical early-term goodwill.
Independents Are Paying Attention
Sherrill won her election by 14 points, powered partly by backlash against Trump’s return to the presidency. Since taking office, she’s clashed with the administration over immigration, sued the federal government, and positioned herself as a true antagonist to the White House.
50% of independents approve of her performance following it. It’s no mandate, but it’s a signal that swing voters are not dismissing her outright. And they’re not entirely turned off by fierce opposition, either.
When asked whether Sherrill should work with Trump or defy him, 42% of voters said she should cooperate when possible. 26% said it depends on the issue. That’s unusual in polarized politics. It suggests New Jersey voters, even in a blue state, aren’t demanding uncompromising resistance. However, they’re clearly not entirely opposed to Sherrill’s gloves-off approach as 31% still say she should defy Trump.
The MAGA Realignment
The poll revealed something else worth watching. The number of New Jersey voters who identify as MAGA has plummeted from 27% in January 2024 to 16% today. That’s a meaningful shift, but it isn’t concrete. Donald Trump’s policies are volatile, causing large shifts in approval since he entered politics a decade ago.
This volatility matters for Sherrill greatly. It means her political environment could shift quickly depending on Trump’s next moves and how she responds. So far, she’s taken the combative approach. It’s paid off.
The Question Ahead
Sherrill’s 58% approval exceeds Phil Murphy’s 44% at the same point in his tenure. Chris Christie was at 41% and Jon Corzine at 34%. Simply put: she’s more popular than any of her predecessors, giving her immense political capital.
But FDU’s Dan Cassino offered a sobering note: as Sherrill makes tough choices on taxes, spending, and services, those numbers will likely decline. The real test isn’t whether she can maintain a 58% approval rating—that’s a hard ask even for the most popular politicians today. It’s whether she can use this honeymoon period to build durable political support that can act as a force field for potentially unpopular decisions ahead.
As Governor Sherrill negotiates her first budget with the Democratic-controlled legislature, she’s given a dose of good news. Her governorship is popular so far. The question now is whether it’s concrete approval or just a temporary glow.