Forecasters are tracking a powerful coastal system that could impact New Jersey early next week or as soon as Sunday, bringing damaging winds, torrential rain, coastal flooding, and significant beach erosion.
Meteorologists warn that while the storm could flirt with tropical storm status, it’s shaping up more like a classic nor’easter—only without snow.
Meteorologists say the exact track is still uncertain. Some models keep it off the coast. Others pull it inland. That difference matters. If it stays east, the impact could be limited. If it shifts west, the damage could be widespread.
“This will be a damaging storm for some along the Atlantic coast,” said Bernie Rayno, AccuWeather’s chief on-air meteorologist said this week.
Rainfall and Wind Gusts
The National Weather Service expects most of New Jersey to see at least one to two inches of rain. In some spots, totals could reach three to five inches. That much water, especially on saturated ground, raises the threat of street flooding and flash flooding in low-lying areas.
Wind is another concern. Along the coast, gusts could reach 60 mph. Inland towns could see 30 to 50 mph gusts. That’s strong enough to take down branches, knock over trees, and leave neighborhoods in the dark.
Ocean conditions are also expected to turn dangerous. Forecasters warned of waves building 10 to 20 feet offshore. For boaters and beach towns, that means another risk: erosion.
Flooding and Coastal Impacts
AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jon Porter said the timing is bad. “There is a risk the tropical wind and rainstorm could be remembered for producing major coastal flooding and significant beach erosion,” he said.
The Jersey Shore’s dunes have already suffered this year, so if the storm pushes water into the bays, flooding could be detrimental. The highest risk right as of this morning is south of Barnegat Bay, but officials stressed that the entire Jersey Shore should be prepared.
Nor’easter or Tropical Storm?
The system may briefly earn a name if it strengthens over the water. Still, forecasters believe its impact may look more like a nor’easter—the kind New Jersey usually sees in the colder months, just without the snow. Either way, the hazards are the same: strong winds, heavy rain, and coastal flooding.
Officials are urging residents to prepare as forecasts shift. That includes clearing storm drains and securing outdoor items as best as possible.
The storm isn’t expected until late Sunday, but forecasters say it’s important to watch updates over the weekend. Things could get ugly quickly.
The New Jersey Digest is a new jersey magazine that has chronicled daily life in the Garden State for over 10 years.