With just over a month until Election Day, a new poll from The New York Times and Siena College shows a close race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald J. Trump in key battleground states. The poll, conducted between Sept. 21 and Sept. 26, shows Harris and Trump nearly tied in Michigan and Wisconsin, two critical states that could determine the outcome of the election.

In Michigan, Harris holds a narrow lead with 48% support compared to Trump’s 47%, within the margin of error. In Wisconsin, Harris leads Trump by two points, 49% to 47%. Both states have been competitive in recent elections, and their results are often difficult to predict, with polls sometimes overstating Democratic support.

The poll also found that Trump maintains a significant lead in Ohio, a state that is not considered a battleground for the presidency but is home to a close Senate race. Trump leads by six points in Ohio, while Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown holds a four-point advantage over Republican Bernie Moreno in the Senate contest.

Among Black voters in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Ohio, Harris has a strong lead, with 80% expressing support for her. However, this figure is lower than President Joe Biden’s numbers in the 2020 election.

One of Trump’s key strengths is his appeal on economic issues, where voters in Michigan and Wisconsin expressed concerns about Harris’s policies. While Harris leads Trump slightly in terms of trust to help voters like them, Trump continues to resonate with voters who felt his presidency improved their personal economic situation.

The poll also shows that abortion is the second most important issue to voters in these states after the economy, with Harris holding a significant lead on the issue in Michigan and Wisconsin.

Polling in battleground states remains tight, reflecting voter uncertainty as both candidates face skepticism from undecided and persuadable voters.

Advantages of the Polls:

• Provides insight into voter priorities, like economic issues and abortion, offering both campaigns areas to focus on.
• Polling across multiple states helps map out key battlegrounds.

Disadvantages of the Polls:

• Polls can sometimes overestimate support for one side, as noted with Wisconsin’s history.
• Sampling and margin of error could make results less predictive of the actual outcome, especially in volatile races.