A new poll from Fairleigh Dickinson gives insight on who is leading the charge in the Democratic Primary for the 2025 NJ Gubernatorial Race.
The poll shows that among the six Democratic Primary candidates, Newark Mayor Ras Baraka tops the list as the most favorable with Democratic voters. Right behind him is NJ Representative Mikie Sherrill (NJ-11) and Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop.
Baraka continues to perform well with NJ progressives, while moderate Democrats tend to prefer Sherrill; Fulop’s appeal lies somewhere between the two, but leans progressive. The poll did not ask participants who they will vote for, but instead focused on name ID and favorability. Former State Senate President Steve Sweeney sits right behind Baraka’s 78% name recognition with an impressive 73% of his own, but lags significantly in favorability.
“This is not the race anyone was expecting a few months ago,” said Poll Director Dan Cassino, a Professor of Government and Politics at FDU. “We had been expecting [Josh] Gottheimer to do much better, and the strong showings of Fulop and Baraka in the progressive wing of the Party has left other candidates scrambling.”
NJ Governor Race: Who Leads Democrats in Approval?
Baraka leads Democratic candidates in favorability at a +31% net approval rating. Fulop and Sherrill are right behind Baraka with a +26% (Fulop) and a +25% (Sherrill) net approval. NJ Rep Josh Gottheimer is sitting at +17%, NJEA President Sean Spiller at +8% and finally, Steve Sweeney at -1% net favorability.
It’s not all a breeze for Baraka, who does have higher unfavorability than Sherrill and Fulop, but his vast name recognition allows him to net higher overall. “Lower name recognition means that Fulop and Sherrill have more room to grow their support than Baraka does,” said Cassino. “More Democrats have made up their minds about Baraka, and double-digit unfavorable numbers among your own party are a bad sign for anyone.”
In New Jersey, voters must be registered to the party whose primary they want to participate in (party affiliation is irrelevant for general elections). Cassino points out that polls can tell us a lot, but ulitmately, what wing of the Democratic Party shows up to the primary will be the real deciding factor. “Baraka is currently edging out the competition among voters on the left of the Democratic Party,” said Cassino. “If the primary electorate skews left, that’s a big advantage; if the electorate looks more like the Democratic Party as a whole, it looks better for Sherrill.”
Poll Methodology
A survey of 1,476 registered New Jersey voters was conducted by Braun Research between February 23-28, 2025, using telephone and text-to-web methods. It included an oversample of Newark residents, with 240 respondents from this group. The data were weighted for demographic balance, ensuring the oversample did not skew results. Surveys were conducted only in English, with landline (191), cellphone (319), and web-based (966) responses. The margin of error is +/-2.9 percentage points, or +/-3.8 when accounting for design effects. The study adheres to AAPOR Transparency Initiative standards, emphasizing accuracy and trust in public opinion research.
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