Kamala Harris’s entry into the 2024 presidential race has sparked a surge of enthusiasm among Democratic voters nationwide, with potential implications for New Jersey’s 14 electoral votes.
Polling data from Gallup and Reuters/Ipsos indicate a marked increase in voter engagement following Harris’s replacement of Joe Biden as the Democratic candidate. This uptick in enthusiasm has been accompanied by a slight but significant lead for Harris in national polls against Donald Trump.
A recent Reuters/Ipsos poll shows Harris leading Trump by 45% to 41% nationally. In key battleground states, including some in the southern Sun Belt, Harris has also gained ground, further solidifying her position in the race. In Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada, Harris holds narrow leads, while Trump maintains a slim advantage in North Carolina.
New Jersey, which has voted for the Democratic candidate in every election since 1992, wasn’t such a certainty for 2024 when Joe Biden was still in the race. Many polls were close, some even having Trump ahead in The Garden State. However, after Harris’ rise to the top of the ticket, NJ is looking much more likely to go blue yet again.
For New Jersey, 538’s election forecast model reveals that Harris is heavily favored, winning the state’s 14 electoral votes in 96 out of 100 simulations. This reflects the state’s historical lean towards Democratic candidates, as well as the current national trend of increased enthusiasm for Harris.
The impact of Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s recent endorsement of Trump remains uncertain, with polls still being conducted as the news broke. However, the endorsement is expected to galvanize some segments of the Republican base, potentially narrowing the gap in critical states.
As the November election approaches, the heightened enthusiasm among Democratic voters, particularly in New Jersey, could prove decisive in determining the state’s role in the electoral college. With both candidates focusing on key swing states, the outcome in New Jersey may serve as an indicator of broader national trends, potentially influencing the overall direction of the race.