New Jersey’s upcoming winter is shaping up to be more intense than last year, with meteorologists forecasting heavier snowfall and a dramatic end to the season across the Northeast. According to AccuWeather’s latest outlook, residents can expect bursts of frigid air and occasional heavy snow, though periods of mild weather may interrupt the season.
Winter Timeline and Key Dates
Meteorological winter kicks off on December 1, while astronomical winter officially begins on December 21, marking the winter solstice and the shortest day of the year.
What’s Driving the Forecast?
This winter, the primary climate driver will be a weak La Niña. Typically, La Niña affects storm patterns by encouraging colder, snowier weather in parts of the U.S. A weaker pattern, however, could allow for greater variability throughout the season, bringing both calm stretches and sudden wintry blasts.
Forecasters suggest that New Jersey and other parts of the Northeast may see light snow as early as December. While January is expected to be relatively mild, the most intense cold and snowfall are likely to occur in February, with the possibility of a polar vortex bringing Arctic air deep into the region.
A Season of Swings
While snow will make an appearance in the Northeast and Midwest, including New Jersey, milder air from the Pacific may disrupt cold patterns at times, causing a push-and-pull between warm and cold systems. Snowstorms are more likely to strike toward the later months of winter, with a possible surge of storms moving from the Great Lakes through the Ohio Valley and into the Northeast.
Ski resorts in the Northeast, which had limited snowfall last season, could benefit from this backend flurry of snow activity if predictions hold. AccuWeather anticipates snowfall totals will rise closer to historical norms, with major metro areas like New York City, Philadelphia, and Boston expecting more snow than last year.
Snowfall Predictions
Last winter was notably below average for snowfall in the region. New York City, which typically sees 29.3 inches of snow per season, recorded only 7.5 inches. This winter, forecasters expect totals between 20 to 25 inches. Similarly, Philadelphia, which usually receives 23.1 inches, saw just 11.2 inches last season. Predictions for this year are slightly more optimistic, with estimates of 15 to 20 inches of snow.
Midwest and Southern Weather Trends
The Midwest can also expect snowier conditions this season, with places like Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin receiving above-average snowfalls. However, milder air from the west could occasionally soften these cold stretches, particularly in early 2025.
Meanwhile, the South may see periods of severe weather. Warmer air and waters from the Gulf of Mexico could increase the chance of storms along the Gulf Coast in February, as the jet stream dips further south. A similar scenario unfolded during the La Niña-driven winter of 2022-23, when nearly 40 atmospheric rivers swept across the U.S., particularly affecting California.
Recent Winters in New Jersey: A Look Back
Recent New Jersey winters have varied widely in terms of snowfall and cold snaps. The winter of 2022-23 was mild, with significantly below-average snow totals across the state. In contrast, the 2020-21 winter featured heavy snowstorms, including one in February that dumped over 30 inches in parts of North Jersey. This upcoming winter looks to fall somewhere in between, with conditions fluctuating between mild spells and short, intense snow events.
Overall, residents in New Jersey should prepare for a more dynamic winter than last year. Snow shovels may still gather some dust during mild stretches, but the forecast suggests there will be enough cold, snowy days to make them essential again.