New Jersey weather has made a dramatic shift, transitioning from calm and dry conditions to cold and unsettled. While this active forecast might seem inconvenient, it’s a much-needed development to help address the significant rainfall deficit and ongoing drought concerns from this fall.

This week brings two opportunities for precipitation. The first arrives Tuesday morning with a brief period of rain, followed by breezy conditions and a slight temperature drop. The second system on Thursday is expected to be more impactful, potentially affecting Thanksgiving Day plans with steady rain and a few surprises in store. Here’s a closer look at what’s ahead.

Monday – Wednesday: A Calm Start to Gusty Winds

The shortened workweek begins on a high note. Expect chilly morning temperatures in the 30s inland and 40s along the coast, giving way to mostly sunny skies through the day. By late afternoon, clouds will start to build. Highs will reach the mid-50s—right around average for late November. The day should stay dry, but there’s a slight chance of a light shower creeping in during the evening. Overnight, temperatures will drop to the mid-40s, staying comfortably above freezing.

Tuesday morning brings widespread light rain across the region, amounting to about a quarter-inch. The best window for rainfall is between 5 a.m. and noon. This precipitation comes courtesy of a cold front, which will usher in clearing skies and a brisk wind during the afternoon, with gusts exceeding 20 mph. Temperatures will peak in the upper 50s during the morning but may drop as the day progresses.

As one of the busiest travel days of the year, Wednesday’s weather offers a welcome break. Conditions will remain dry, though cooler, with highs around 50 degrees. Expect morning sunshine to fade behind increasing clouds by the afternoon, accompanied by a light breeze.

Thanksgiving Day: Rainy and Raw

Thursday’s storm system is poised to bring steady rain throughout the day, with the heaviest rainfall expected early in the morning until around 4 to 5 p.m. Rainfall totals could exceed half an inch, making for a soggy Thanksgiving (bring those turkeys inside). While winds are forecast to remain light and severe weather is unlikely, the presence of cold air raises the possibility of a brief wintry mix in the state’s northwest corner, particularly in areas of North and Western Jersey. Highs will stay in the 40s, so the rain will feel especially cold even in areas without snow.

Black Friday: Clearing Out

Showers may linger early Friday morning but should clear by mid-morning. As the day progresses, skies will partially clear, but temperatures will hold steady in the mid to upper 40s. A persistent breeze will make it feel colder, so dressing warmly is a must for post-Thanksgiving shopping or outdoor activities.

While the week ahead brings a mix of weather challenges, it’s all part of a larger pattern that’s helping to replenish our much-needed water supply.